Prior Lake, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS63 KMPX 131748
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will slowly move east
  across the area into Friday afternoon.

- Heaviest rain is expected in central MN where 3 to 4 inches
  could fall. Localized areas of +5 inches are possible.

- The active pattern will continue, with chances for rain each
  day. The next round of substantial rainfall looks likely
  Tuesday/Wednesday night week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Current radar imagery shows a mess of scattered areas of rain across
a majority of the CWA. Convection continues to be favored at the
nose of the LLJ across western to southern MN while the
precipitation changes over to more stratiform nature the farther
north and east one goes. CAMs show additional blobs of disorganized,
convection forming over northeast SD within the next few hours
(currently supported by infrared imagery). This activity will then
travel east through central MN and into northern WI through this
morning. A very moist environment combined with warm rain processes
will lead to efficient rainfall rates. If any training convection
can occur we rainfall totals of 3-4" to possibly even localized
areas up to 5" may occur. WPC`s MPD 426 describes this well and
highlights a concern for potential flash flooding over the next few
hours. We will continue to monitor short-term radar trends and watch
if any slow moving storms manage to train over urban areas, as these
would be most susceptible to flash flooding.

CAMs then hint at a brief break in the rain occurring this afternoon
across MN before another round of scattered showers and storms forms
north of the warm front. This activity should also push east into
the northern half of WI tonight, resulting in another swath of 1 to
perhaps even 2" of rain (HREF mainly focuses this swath over our
northern WI counties). The daytime hours of Saturday actually look
pretty dry as a lack of synoptic forcing is evident in guidance.
Thus, have decreased PoPs Saturday morning to the evening. However,
PoPs increase to 60-75% Saturday night across the CWA as a mid-level
vorticity max slides across the aforementioned warm front. Thus,
more showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday night. We can
expect several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms through at
least early next week as the warm front should remain
nearby/overhead. With a very moist environment (PWATs of 1" to close
to 2"), not much lift will be needed near the front to generate more
precipitation. Currently, the best timing for rain each day looks to
be in the afternoon and evening hours with showers and storms losing
steam overnight with the loss of heating. Strong to severe storms
will be a possibility each afternoon/evening through Wednesday as
MUCAPE should be at least 2000 J/kg. Shear magnitudes will be
questionable but potentially enough to generate a supercell or two.
It`s seems most probable that we`ll see something similar to what we
saw Thursday (a couple of isolated strong to severe storms each
day). Another concern will be the potential for significant rainfall
as the rounds of convection should add up to multi-inch
accumulations. Areas that see rounds of rain 2-3 days in a row could
see amounts of 3" to possibly even 5". The Grand Ensemble mean
currently favors highest precipitation amounts across central MN
(including the Twin Cities metro) into west-central WI through next
Wednesday. Areal and flash flooding is definitely a possibility
through mid-next week, especially for low-lying and urban areas.

A brief dry period looks possible after next Wednesday as a cold
front sweeps through and drier, northwesterly flow follows in its
wake. However, long-range ensembles show the active weather
returning shortly after, with us potentially even warmer and
wetter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

First 6-hours of the 18z TAF window will run drier as the large
shield of morning rain departs east. However, focus will be on
lingering precipitation across west central Minnesota. Best
chance for steady precipitation and visibility reductions
associated with this rainfall will be at STC this afternoon.
Opted to keep the large PROB30 windows in later this afternoon/into
the evening at the majority of terminals as hi-res guidance
advertises further development of scattered showers. Outside of
the showers, MVFR cigs lower to IFR overnight with drizzle/mist.
Periods of steady precipitation are most likely at STC/MSP/RNH
overnight. The lower cigs/mist will pair will MVFR or lower
visibility. Easterly winds relax a bit this evening, however
should still sustain between 5-10 kts heading into Saturday
morning. Precip chances end from west to east after daybreak.

KMSP...Short term portion of the TAF is forecast to run drier
heading into the afternoon. Periods of mist/drizzle possible and
have maintained a PROB30 late afternoon into the evening for
potential MVFR -SHRA. Latest hi-res data has focused in on the
6z-12z period for what may end up as more persistent -RA, so may
end up converting the PROB30 to a TEMPO in later TAF issuance.
IFR cigs likely heading into Saturday morning. Easterly winds
turn slightly northeasterly Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR late w/TSRA. Wind S at 10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Strus